2030: conventional thermal to fill nuclear gap in Germany
24 June 2013, Gas, Electricity, Nuclear, Solar, Wind
Although renewable generation sources are expected to step up to provide 34% of the generation mix - mainly wind, with over 67GW capacity in 2030 - Germany will still require gas and coal to meet demand. This is despite the influence of two main factors combining to dampen demand growth.
The first of these is higher levels of energy efficiency assumed in all sectors. Datamonitor assumes over 73TWh of electricity saved through energy efficiency policy and behavior (representing 14% of 2030 demand), shared across residential, commercial, and industrial demand.
Second is forecast rising retail prices, which since Datamonitor's previous forecast in September 2012 have been revised further upward due to the increasing costs of Germany's renewable energy policy targets (35% of renewables by 2020).
Demand from the transport sector has been assumed to grow conservatively insofar as electric vehicles are concerned; Datamonitor has assumed 4 million pure electric vehicles on the roads in 2030 instead of the government's 6 million target, although the "rush" is only assumed to occur after 2022, once the required charging infrastructure is in place.
The outcome of relatively lower demand, along with the expected increase in renewable generation and the ongoing use of gas and coal generation, mean that despite the exit of nuclear, Germany is forecast to remain a net exporter of electricity.
For comprehensive coverage of the German power market to 2030, see "Datamonitor Power Analyzer 2013 - Germany" (June 2013, EN00038-051).
www.datamonitorenergy.com / firstname.lastname@example.org / @DatamonitorEN
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