A nuclear future for the Netherlands

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12 July 2013, Gas, Electricity, Nuclear, Solar, Wind

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With the issue of updated Dutch forecasts in July 2013, Datamonitor has revised the gas-fired generation forecasts for the Netherlands downward since the forecasts released in 2012, thanks largely to the punishing spark spreads faced by plants across Europe. Gas generation output is still forecast to grow from current levels, however, with two new gas-fired plants still assumed to come online in 2013 and 2017. This new capacity of some 2,500MW is also captured in Datamonitor's European Power Assets Database (EN00061-001).

The contribution of nuclear generation in the Netherlands is forecast to increase fourfold to 16% of total generation in 2030. From 2020 there are two new nuclear plants assumed at the existing Borssele site, together adding 2,250MW. As the Dutch utility Delta has postponed the construction of its reactor, Datamonitor has assumed this will come online by 2022, with another reactor, proposed by Energy Resources Holdings, assumed to come online by 2021.

This optimistic assumption for new nuclear is predicated on the government's pro-nuclear stance. The reversal of anti-nuclear sentiment in the Netherlands is of note - as recently as 2003 the government voted to close the current Delta/RWE owned Borssele plant by 2013, but later agreed to push back the date to 2033 contingent upon maintaining safety standards.

Similar to the UK, the Netherlands's government has considered new nuclear in a more favorable light given energy policy goals pertaining to security of supply and meeting the EU carbon dioxide reduction goal of 20% by 2020.


www.datamonitorenergy.com / asken@datamonitor.com / @DatamonitorEN

Source: MarketLine

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