Lower outlook for French transport power demand

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27 June 2013, Gas, Electricity, Nuclear, Solar, Wind

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Datamonitor has revised its EV population forecast from 3 million to 2 million by 2030 in France, corresponding to just under 5.5TWh of demand.

As in other European countries covered in Datamonitor's power forecasts, the uptake of EVs is an embryonic affair; in France, there were less than 11,000 EVs registered in 2012, and in Italy just under 2,000. However, the number is expected to rapidly increase on the back of falling prices, improved charging infrastructure, and increases in the price of traditional gasoline and diesel internal combustion engine vehicles.

Most countries expect EV uptake to skyrocket from 2020 onward to what are patently unachievable levels. Germany, for example, officially has a target of 6 million EVs by 2030. Until 2020, forecasts are modest due to negative public perceptions vis-a-vis the inconvenience of EVs and high purchase costs. France is investing in fast-charging stations, but Datamonitor does not expect this to overcome the hurdles before 2020.

However, France's extensive rail network drives 80% of transport electricity demand. Datamonitor has assumed the rail sector will see average annual growth of 1.6% to 2030, driven by extensive investment in new high-speed rail lines and upgrades of other lines. In terms of volume this is the major part of overall transport demand, forecast to stand at 22.6TWh in 2030. Overall transport demand is increasing, but not as much as thought back in 2012. Unless there is a large improvement in the performance and cost of EVs, their impact on the grid will be less significant than French policy hopes.

For more information on this topic please see "Datamonitor Power Analyzer 2013 France (EN00038-052)," which is set for release at the end of June 2013.

www.datamonitorenergy.com / asken@datamonitor.com / @DatamonitorEN

Source: MarketLine

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