Turkey's power consumption to grow at rapid pace

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19 June 2014, Electricity, Nuclear, Solar, Wind

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Despite uncertainty in the government, with Recep Tayyip Erdogan facing a number of protests to resign after his comments on the Soma mine disaster, Turkey's economy continues to grow as its population and its consumer spending power both increase. These factors will lead to greater demand for power from industrial sectors such as automotive, construction, and manufacturing. Datamonitor Energy forecasts the industrial sector will account for slightly over 46% of Turkey's energy consumption by 2030. It should be noted that some of the growing sectors are heavily machinery-orientated, and this could further increase the demand for power.

We project overall electricity demand to reach 434.6TWh per annum by 2030. This equates to a compound annual growth rate of 4.6% from 2013 to 2030. Both residential and commercial energy demand are expected to exceed 100TWh each in the same timeframe. Transport will account for the smallest portion of energy demand, equating to less than 0.5% of the country's total annual energy consumption over the next 16 years. The adoption of expensive electric cars in emerging nations such as Turkey is unlikely due to the costly nature of these cars' batteries and the limited number of recharging outlets for electric vehicles.

Natural gas will continue to be Turkey's major contributor to power generation, fueling more than a third of the country's total power production. Turkey is ramping up its gas-fired power generation capabilities, and an additional 9.6GW of capacity is earmarked to come online in the next 15 years. The country's transcontinental location makes it an ideal energy transit hub for the movements of oil and natural gas between Russia, the Caspian region, and the Middle East and Europe, further enhancing the appeal of natural gas as a power generation fuel for Turkey.

Nevertheless, hydro and coal-fired power generation will continue to play an important role in the country's power generation, accounting for the remaining supply of electricity. Renewable energies, particularly solar, are projected to play a minimal role in the country's energy production, with weak government feed-in tariffs and short contract periods the major inhibitors. A key point for the future is the start of nuclear power generation from 2022, and Datamonitor Energy foresees this energy source accounting for a 13.7% share of Turkey's total power generation by 2030.

www.datamonitorenergy.com / asken@datamonitor.com / @DatamonitorEN

Source: MarketLine

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